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It’s time for Australia to enter thenext phase of adolescence and startbuilding for the long term

Feb. 24, 2026 by SOMAÍ Pharmaceuticals

Australia isn’t in a race to the bottom on price, but in a race for operational efficiency, argues SOMAÍ Pharmaceuticals chairman Michael Sassano. And while the business environment may seem tough, the signs are there for the local market be a great one.

Australia is one of the most rapidly changing cannabis markets on the planet. If you blink, you may just miss the pivots.

For those of us who have lived through the evolution of other developing markets, what’s happening in Australia is a clear signal of a “great market”.

We are entering Australia 3.0 – a phase that is calmer, enjoys sustained growth, and sees new demographics entering the market, to find healing.

It’s time to move past the “trial by fire” and start building for the long term.

The regulatory drumbeat: safety over suppression

Regulatory shifts are common in any mature market. But in a market as developed as Australia, it is less about the need for more regulations and more about following the rules that work and already exist.

Whether these shifts are positive or negative depends entirely on the forces wielding the decision-making. We see negative influences globally, such as big alcohol in the US trying to stifle cannabis beverages because they see their own market share declining. Australia has its own hurdles, some of them self-inflicted by an entrepreneurial spirit that occasionally moves faster than the regulator’s eye.

However, the reality is that the Australian program is a massive success. It provides a safe, legal alternative to the dangers of the grey market and unregulated access that still exists for most.

Trying to retroactively change form factors or THC limits won’t provide safe access; it will only drive people back to the illicit market.

Fast adoption and product evolution

The speed at which the Australian market has adopted new product categories is required for any successful market.

Pre-COVID, Australia was primarily an oral dosage market, but it quickly transitioned into a flower-dominant market.

By late 2023, inhalation devices and other forms started appearing, and by 2025, gummies and rosins hit the shelves. As we move through 2026, almost every cannabis product category is eepresented and thriving.

While some take pride in being first to market, being the last one one still selling is the better target as early forms of these products improve.

Having these categories available is a huge positive, even as some get “creative” with pre-rolls, aka fixed dosages. Australia is far ahead of the curve, entering a phase where all products can and will exist to help specific demographics.

The reality of price compression

Price compression exists in every market, but there is a bottom, and Australia isn’t there yet.

These bottoms generally occur when every layer of the margin has been squeezed to a standard level of profitability.

While it may seem like the latest flower pricing from a disruptor brand is an industry-shaking event, the reality is they are simply cutting the fat and exploiting market inefficiency.

Inefficient markets become efficient by exposing their weak sides. Taking the pricing battle to the consumer is uncomfortable for established players, but the consumer benefits, and the supply lines eventually pull in their belt.

Markets like Canada had to pull that belt in many notches over time. The companies that remain have healthy, standard margins because they moved away from bloated staffing and unrealistic expectations.

We likely won’t see another 40% drop like we did in 2025, but a 10% annual decrease over the next three years is a realistic outlook as all layers become leaner.
This isn’t a race to the bottom; it’s a standard efficiency race. Concentrating on operational efficiency and the actual cost of doing business must be the only focus.

Vertical integration: a strong path forward

Cannabis companies have a tendency to follow each other off a cliff, but vertical integration is the most solid model for larger companies in a future of margin compression.

The US$36 billion US market has proven this definitively with all vertically integrated cultivation, manufacturing, distribution and dispensary public companies.

Even a white-label brand cannot survive in a future market because they don’t own the producer’s margin. It may seem that the clinic, pharmacy, and distribution vertical will provide enough margin to survive. Certainly today that is true. But in a declining margin efficient environment, you need all the margins to be sustainable as a large
group.

Big pharmaceutical

Eventually, big pharma distribution will enter the market in a massive way. Stand-alone cannabis verticals will meet a new challenge as independence and pricing shift toward these larger, efficient players with huge reach.

A lucky few quality volume players will find their place on those massive shelves, enjoying high volume in exchange for margin sacrifice.
Others will tighten the belt once again, while independents find a
steady, sustainable income base.

Local producers

All major markets need a local robust cultivation and manufacturing base. Relying on cheaper and cheaper imports helps margins in the short term but eventually the margins all correct.

Australia is the most vertically integrated country of the largest global markets with a thriving local cultivation and manufacturing base.

With larger grows coming online and more manufacturing replacing compound pharmacy gaps, importers will need to roll up their sleeves in a future market to compete and provide a compelling advantage other than price.

Australia 3.0: The diapers are off and teenage years are ending

It is still so early in the life of global cannabis markets, despite it feeling like we’ve endured 100 years of trials by fire. The reality is the diapers came off a little while ago and you shot through puberty. This is a time of high growth with far less price compression than we’ve already seen.

Yes, there will be a few big players like everywhere else, but there is enough room and margin for smaller groups to enjoy a healthy business atmosphere.

Some companies won’t make it, and brands will come and go. But there is enough growth for all to run efficient models and form partnerships that carry the market forward.

By Michael Sassano

Originally published in Cannabiz